Reinvigorating confidence A down-to-earth approach reinforces confidence
2022-07-19 00:00

On May 25, the State Council convened a nationwide video conference to stabilize expectations and boost confidence.

The meeting had drawn widespread attention even before it began, with rumors circulating that “extraordinary measures” might be employed to stimulate the economy. The Shanghai Composite Index rose steadily in response, climbing back above the 3,100-point mark.

However, judging by the content of the meeting, it was essentially a meeting to convey policy directives and mobilize efforts, focusing on the implementation of the 33 economic stabilization measures, and no “extraordinary” stimulus measures were announced.

The market craves confidence and seeks a “magic bullet” that delivers immediate results.

However, standing at the historic juncture of the “Two Centenary Goals,” there are no shortcuts for us to take.

To restore confidence, a down-to-earth approach is more practical.

A few days ago, a fourth-grade elementary school student drew an analogy between the Russia-Ukraine situation and the "Three Kingdoms" era, winning countless likes from netizens.

I, too, would like to draw on this historical narrative to share my understanding of our nation.

My initial understanding of Zhuge Liang came entirely from *Romance of the Three Kingdoms*. With his feather fan and silk scarf, an otherworldly demeanor, the power to command the elements, and boundless ingenuity, he was portrayed as a sage of divine wisdom.

However, in the official historical records, Zhuge Liang is not credited with feats such as setting fire to the Bowang Camp, borrowing arrows with straw boats, summoning the east wind, or burning the bamboo-armored troops.

Chen Shou also remarked in the *Records of the Three Kingdoms*: “Though Zhuge Liang was talented, his strength lay in military administration, while his weakness was in extraordinary stratagems; his ability to govern the people surpassed his military tactics. It seems that adapting to changing circumstances and devising military strategies were not his forte!”

So Zhuge Liang wasn’t actually skilled in ingenious strategies or military tactics!

The image of the great, all-knowing strategist I had in my mind crumbled for a moment. But as I gained more life experience, I increasingly realized—there were no “ingenious schemes” at all; it was all based on fundamental skills honed through relentless practice.

Historical records describe Zhuge Liang’s military tactics: “Stationary as a mountain, advancing and retreating like the wind; on the day his troops marched out, the world trembled, yet the people’s hearts remained untroubled.” As for his camp arrangements and battle formations, they were truly outstanding. After Zhuge Liang’s death, Sima Yi visited his fortifications and exclaimed, “Truly a prodigious talent of the world.”

Effective military governance and leadership boil down to nothing more than this.

During the Three Kingdoms period, the realm comprised thirteen provinces: Cao Wei held nine and a half, Eastern Wu held two and a half, and Shu Han held only one.

With only one-ninth of the total military strength, he projected a momentum capable of overwhelming the entire realm. Zhuge Liang did not rely on “unconventional tactics” such as the “Ziwu Valley stratagem,” but rather ensured proper arrangements for both agriculture and warfare, administered rewards and punishments fairly, maintained strict military discipline, and solidly mastered the fundamentals—responding to all changes with unwavering consistency.

The reason I mention Zhuge Liang is not to draw a parallel between Shu Han and China.

My point is that a nation differs from an individual. As the saying goes, “A small boat is easy to turn”—an individual can shift direction repeatedly and adjust at will, but for a nation, “moving one hair affects the whole body”; adjustments must be gradual, with each new phase built only after the previous one is firmly established.

Moreover, with a population of 1.4 billion and as the world’s second-largest economy, any extraordinary, high-impact policy introduced carries risks in the long term that are commensurate with its short-term stimulus effects.

Therefore, the 33 measures across six areas to stabilize economic growth, as outlined at the State Council executive meeting on May 23, still prioritize “stability”—ensuring that everything moves in a positive direction and using time to restore market and consumer confidence.

The more critical the situation, the more practical and trustworthy such down-to-earth approaches tend to be.

The report of the 19th CPC National Congress clearly outlined the timetable and roadmap for building a modern socialist country in all respects.

Building on the foundation of fully building a moderately prosperous society by 2020—the first centenary goal—we will strive for another 15 years to basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035. From 2035 to the middle of this century, we will strive for another 15 years to build our country into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and beautiful socialist modernized powerhouse.

Since we are focused on the “century-long” goals decades from now, what we must do is seize the opportunity, make timely adjustments, and eliminate hidden risks that could affect long-term development—rather than creating new risks for the sake of short-term growth.

Of course, any adjustment will inevitably involve “growing pains.”

However, we must not undermine the foundations of economic development; otherwise, all adjustments will lose their meaning. This is why we have repeatedly emphasized the need to “safeguard market entities, safeguard employment, and safeguard people’s livelihoods.”

It is worth noting that the State Council will dispatch inspection teams to conduct special inspections on the implementation of local policies and supporting measures.

Once the inspections begin, the implementation rules issued by various regions regarding the comprehensive economic stabilization package may warrant even closer attention.

In fact, the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2021 had already identified the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations, and deployed a “seven-pronged policy package.”

However, the combined impact of the Omicron variant and these three pressures has been so significant that it has, to some extent, exceeded expectations.

The State Council executive meeting held on May 23 further outlined the economic stabilization package, striving to bring the economy back on track and ensure it operates within a reasonable range.

Reinvigorating confidence A down-to-earth approach reinforces confidence

Relevant policies are being implemented at an accelerated pace.

On May 25 alone, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Opinions on Further Mobilizing Existing Assets and Expanding Effective Investment”; the Ministry of Finance released the “Notice on Leveraging the Guiding Role of Fiscal Policy to Support Financial Institutions in Assisting Market Entities with Relief and Development”; and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) published the “Notice on Matters Concerning Central Enterprises Assisting Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Overcoming Difficulties and Promoting Collaborative Development.”

The ultimate goal of all these major initiatives is to safeguard market entities, protect employment, and ensure people’s livelihoods.

Enterprises are the most important market entities and also bear the heavy responsibility of creating jobs. Compared to various economic indicators, business confidence—which “stems from the ripples”—is of paramount importance.

Since the beginning of this year, we have been putting into practice the principle of “effectively coordinating COVID-19 prevention and control with economic and social development,” establishing a “peacetime-to-emergency transition” model that operates as efficiently as possible.

From establishing 15-minute nucleic acid testing zones to leveraging digital technology to empower routine epidemic prevention and control efforts... localities across the country are devising every possible measure to reduce uncertainty, stabilize expectations, and restore business confidence.

By overcoming these challenges together and scaling this mountain, we will eventually see a sky full of stars.

In the face of difficulties, we must cultivate a mindset for a protracted struggle and discard the erroneous notions of a quick victory or surrender—a principle that Chairman Mao made abundantly clear as early as 1938.

Pandemic prevention and control is a protracted struggle.

Because we remain the world’s largest developing country, with a vast population and significant regional disparities, our preparations for a long-term struggle against the pandemic are still insufficient. Some localities resort to “one-size-fits-all” measures at the slightest provocation, which has a major impact on economic operations. Although there are issues of insufficient resources, this indeed demonstrates that adequate preparations were not made in advance.

Revitalizing the economy is also a protracted struggle.

The era of rapid economic growth is gone forever. We are striving to drive industrial upgrading through technological progress and pursue a path of high-quality development.

At this critical juncture of transformation, we have once again faced recurring outbreaks, which inevitably lead to some “internal competition” and “discomfort,” causing a lack of confidence. However, the fundamental trend of long-term economic growth remains unchanged; the key lies in when we can shake off this short-term weakness.

The return to value may be delayed, but it will never fail to materialize.

We cannot expect confidence to be restored immediately upon the introduction of a single policy. If such a solution truly existed, it would have been implemented long ago. The reason for proceeding with the utmost caution is the fear of significant side effects that might follow.

What truly matters is maintaining stability, ensuring everything moves in a positive direction, and allowing time to restore market and consumer confidence.

Only by actively transforming, embracing this new era, and aligning with national policy directions can we secure a place in the imminent wave of change and reap the most substantial benefits of the nation’s prosperity.

A down-to-earth approach is more practical and more trustworthy.

Source: Investment Promotion Network
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