In recent days, a policy “centered on county towns as key platforms” has emerged out of nowhere! This signals a new direction for the future of China’s more than 2,800 districts and counties. Is this a new trend? Yes and no. If one simplistically assumes that the state is transferring population and resources from first- and second-tier cities to county towns, that conclusion is certainly mistaken.Industry, population, and supporting infrastructure do not operate on the same level. Major cities define the “sky” of China’s development, while small villages occupy the better “ground.” County towns, however, serve as the bridge connecting “sky and ground.” Consequently, cities support county towns, and county towns support villages, forming a “new system.” Even if various resources “trickle down” to county towns, high-quality resources remain limited. Investment promotion and industrial development must adhere to objective laws; “survival of the fittest” is an immutable principle. Limited resources can only be allocated to the county towns where they yield the greatest returns.
Recognizing objective laws
No Matter How Long the Neck, It Cannot Exceed the Head
China’s urban development can be said to be based on four tiers: first- and second-tier cities—third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier cities—county towns—rural villages. If a county town lacks the influence of surrounding cities, has poor transportation, no industrial foundation, and scant resources from major enterprises or prestigious universities, it will ultimately face decline. If county towns fall into decline, the fate of rural areas is easy to imagine. Therefore, county towns play a crucial role. This time, promoting the development of county towns will directly drive rural revitalization. It has been said that there are three ways to achieve “the wealthy leading the less wealthy”: distributing funds, building roads, and supporting entrepreneurs. In the context of regional development, funds will eventually run out, and roads must be continuously expanded. Only by fostering the growth of industries can long-term benefits be achieved. From this perspective, industrial revitalization is the most effective and sustainable development strategy. When industries thrive, jobs are created, more people return to the county towns, and the capacity for basic public services is enhanced. Conversely, with a weak industrial foundation and severe brain drain, even newly built factories may fail to attract high-quality enterprises. When it comes to attracting investment in county towns, should we acknowledge these objective realities? Practical experience shows that county towns surrounding major cities have the highest probability of successfully securing projects. Has Kunshan, near Shanghai, succeeded? It certainly has. Its 2021 GDP reached 474.8 billion yuan, surpassing that of most prefecture-level cities. The "Three Northern Counties" surrounding Beijing serve to alleviate population pressure and are currently implementing an integration strategy; they undoubtedly hold great potential for the future. However, the population flows in a tidal pattern—commuting into the city in the morning and returning home to rest at night. The path for county towns to integrate into metropolitan areas and strengthen these regions is becoming increasingly clear. By absorbing population and functional relief from metropolitan areas, as well as meeting the industrial relocation needs of major cities, small county towns are presented with development opportunities. On the other hand, county towns must support rural areas, narrowing the urban-rural gap by leveraging industries to drive core development and revitalize the countryside. When people choose to stay and enjoy services and benefits comparable to those in cities, a new era of urbanization will dawn. Thus, the future landscape of China is taking shape: central cities—urban clusters and metropolitan areas—county towns—rural revitalization, all interconnected in a seamless chain.
All for the Greater Good
One hero needs three helpers
According to statistics, the 50 county-level administrative divisions with the smallest populations in China all have populations of less than 36,100. These “pocket-sized” counties are mainly distributed across provinces such as Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi.
The populations of these county seats generally range between 30,000 and 40,000—not even matching the enrollment of some universities. Clearly, the issue at hand is not industrial development, but rather whether these counties can continue to exist. A few years ago, the Two Sessions proposed “abolishing and merging small-population counties,” suggesting pilot mergers for inland counties with populations under 100,000. This sparked a public debate over the survival of these “pocket-sized” counties. The “village consolidation” initiative has been underway for over a decade, and the consolidation of townships has been ongoing; county-level cities are no exception. However, county-level governments represent the most comprehensive grassroots administrative units, with institutional structures that, though small, are fully equipped. Some counties, despite their small populations, weak industries, and remote locations, have ensured the security and stability of China’s border regions.
Alashankou City in Xinjiang is a major port city for China’s foreign trade and a key node in the “Belt and Road” initiative; Foping County in Shaanxi is a crucial junction where National Highway 108, the G5 Beijing-Kunming Expressway, and the Xi’an-Chengdu High-Speed Railway traverse the Qinling Mountains, and it hosts a giant panda nature reserve, highlighting its significance for ecological conservation. Therefore, population size and resource allocation should not be the sole criteria for deciding whether to abolish or merge administrative divisions. If “pocket-sized” small counties are to be merged or abolished to optimize the county-level administrative structure, a meticulous and prudent analysis and evaluation must be conducted, with each case considered individually and mergers or abolitions implemented only when fully justified. The ultimate goal is to genuinely streamline administration and reduce bureaucracy, not merely to consolidate or abolish for the sake of it. In addition to merger plans, administrative management system reforms can also be implemented in these “pocket-sized” small counties.Having counties directly administer villages is also a reasonable option. Therefore, even when some localities are forced to relinquish their status, it is done for the greater good.
Counties are ranked in tiers
If you do not move forward, you will never know how far the road stretches
With over 9.6 million square kilometers of national territory and so many county seats and county-level cities of varying sizes, each county differs in terms of industry, current conditions, and population. Therefore, it is essential to distinguish between them, define their tiers, and clarify their positioning. Throughout this process, we must respect the laws of county development, adapt to trends in population mobility, and base decisions on resource and environmental conditions, carrying capacity, geographical location, and industrial foundations. We must coordinate the production, living, and ecological needs of county seats to reasonably determine development paths for different types of counties. In terms of investment promotion, the following categories of county towns deserve attention: First, county towns within the influence of major cities. Those adjacent to major cities can achieve “functional complementarity” and integrate into the development of these cities. Of the 43 counties with annual GDP exceeding 100 billion yuan, 35 are located along the coast, with Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces together accounting for 60% of all such counties.The rise of counties such as Kunshan and Jiangyin stems precisely from their integration into urban clusters and metropolitan areas, seizing development opportunities. Second, counties undergoing integrated development. Primarily located around major cities in the Yangtze River Basin (Hubei, Anhui, Henan, Hunan, and Sichuan), these counties benefit from regional integration. They will integrate into larger cities, absorb population and industrial transfers, and evolve into satellite cities. Third, county-level cities with distinctive industries. These are primarily concentrated in the eastern coastal regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, and Shandong). Led by leading enterprises, they integrate efforts to “strengthen and complement industrial chains,” guiding small and medium-sized enterprises to focus on niche sectors. Fourth, counties undergoing transformation and upgrading. With national support, some counties have already achieved comprehensive poverty alleviation and transitioned from agriculture to manufacturing, though they currently rely mainly on low-end industries. Given the current situation, introducing high-tech industries and upgrading traditional industries is the only surefire way to turn the tide. Fifth, counties that are not industrial hubs, such as major agricultural production areas and ecological functional zones.For these counties, the priority is not to achieve strong economic growth; rather, their value lies in non-economic aspects, such as ecological restoration, food security, and providing public services to surrounding rural areas. Counties must be categorized into different tiers, and local authorities must clarify the pathways for industrial, economic, and social development, allowing industries that are down-to-earth and well-suited to local conditions to truly take root and flourish, thereby bringing sustainable vitality to the counties.
Conclusion
County urbanization is not about spreading out haphazardly; rather, it involves using policy to set clear signals, enabling all forces to exert their efforts simultaneously and thereby pool greater strength to drive synergy between counties and rural areas.
