As the "locomotives" of the nation's economic development, cities across the country have released their 2021 performance reports, signaling that urban economies have reached new heights. Among the more than 300 cities at the prefectural level and above nationwide, the top 50 are truly the "cream of the crop."
The four first-tier cities—Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—continue to firmly hold their positions as the “Big Four.” This time, Yulin and Taiyuan replaced Nanning and Zhangzhou to become the “top performers” entering the Top 50.
Among the top 20 cities by GDP, the rankings of the top 17 remained unchanged from 2020. However, after a 22-year hiatus, Fuzhou surpassed Quanzhou to reclaim the top spot in Fujian Province, securing the final spot in the national top 20.
(Changchun’s data is preliminary; official figures prevail)
The Big Picture Remains Unchanged: Who Performed Better?
Analyzing by GDP ranking, the total GDP of the top ten cities nationwide exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan last year, with the top six cities surpassing 2 trillion yuan. Among them, Shanghai and Beijing’s total GDP exceeded 4 trillion yuan, Shenzhen and Guangzhou exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and Chengdu and Hangzhou approached 2 trillion yuan. Looking at actual GDP growth rates, 14 cities—including Wuhan, Hefei, Nantong, Wuxi, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Dongguan—outperformed the national average of 8.1%. Among them, Wuhan (12.2%), Hefei (9.2%), and Nantong (8.9%) ranked first, second, and third, respectively.
It is worth noting that the "trillion-yuan GDP club" has expanded to 24 cities. Geographically, 17 are in the eastern region, 4 in the central region, and 3 in the western region. In terms of regional distribution, 18 are in the south and only 6 in the north, indicating that the gap between the north and south has not narrowed. From the perspective of urban clusters, the Yangtze River Delta leads with 8 cities, followed closely by the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with 4. Among the top 10 cities, Wuhan and Hangzhou swapped positions in 2020 due to the impact of the pandemic. Nanjing replaced Tianjin to become one of China’s top 10 cities. This indicates that the overall landscape has remained largely unchanged this year.
Newcomers Surpass 10,000: Who Is Making the Most Progress?
The so-called “Trillion-Yuan Club” refers to cities in mainland China with an annual GDP of 1 trillion yuan or more. In 2020, the “Trillion-Yuan Club” expanded, with membership growing from 17 to 23 cities, including Jinan, Hefei, Nantong, Fuzhou, Quanzhou, and Xi’an. In recent years, a review of these cities’ performance reveals a mix of successes and challenges.
When mentioning Hefei, leading enterprises such as BOE, Changxin, and NIO immediately come to mind. In recent years, it would be no exaggeration to describe Hefei’s trajectory as a “sprint to the finish line.” Much like a dark horse on a soccer field, it charges toward the goal, revealing a confident composure only upon reaching the goal line, before delivering a decisive shot straight into the net. Hefei leads all six cities in both GDP growth and nominal growth rate, having surpassed the 100-billion-yuan mark annually for six consecutive years. At this pace, it won’t be long before Hefei overtakes Jinan this year. Of course, Jinan, as the provincial capital, is no slouch either, taking the top spot among the six cities with 1,143.22 billion yuan and securing 18th place nationwide.In recent years, its development has progressed by leaps and bounds, and it is bound to stand tall above the rest within the province. According to data from the Jinan Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, Jinan deeply implemented its strategy of strengthening the city through industry and accelerated the construction of “Smart Manufacturing Jinan.” The city’s industrial economy maintained stable operations, with the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises growing by 5.9% year-on-year and averaging 9.0% over two years—exceeding the national and provincial two-year averages by 2.9 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively. In comparison, Quanzhou’s economy in 2019 fell just 5.4 billion yuan short of the trillion-yuan mark. Although its GDP has ranked first in the province for 22 consecutive years, Fuzhou has been hot on its heels. Ultimately, Fuzhou reclaimed the title of “top dog.” However, it remains to be seen which city will ultimately hold onto that position. Fuzhou’s performance is impressive, with its GDP surpassing another 100-billion-yuan threshold in 2021. Specifically, the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors contributed 4.0%, 32.5%, and 63.5% to economic growth, respectively, driving growth by 0.3, 2.7, and 5.3 percentage points. In terms of nominal GDP growth, Fuzhou also performed exceptionally well, with its GDP growth rate exceeding that of Quanzhou in each of the first three quarters of last year.With an annual growth rate of 13.0%, Fuzhou ranked second only to Hefei among the six “newcomers.” To be honest, Nantong’s entry into the trillion-yuan club came as a surprise. In 2019, it was 61.65 billion yuan short of the trillion-yuan target, a gap that was the second-largest among the six cities, surpassed only by Xi’an. While one cannot devour a giant in a single bite, steady, incremental growth over time yields nearly the same result. What is truly impressive is Nantong’s geographical advantage: it has entered Shanghai’s one-hour economic zone and benefits from the influence of both coastal and inland economies. When it comes to “construction contractors,” Nantong is a pro—one in every four Nantong residents works in the construction industry. As Nantong’s traditional, pillar, and leading industry, the construction sector generates significant output. As of last year, the total output value of the construction industry exceeded one trillion yuan, ranking first among prefecture-level cities. Xi’an is the first city in Northwest China to surpass the 1 trillion yuan GDP threshold. Moreover, this milestone signifies that all nine National Central Cities now have GDPs exceeding 1 trillion yuan. In recent years, Xi’an faced shortcomings in its county-level economy, primarily concentrated in the three traditionally “lagging” counties of Hu, Lantian, and Zhouzhi. Following continuous adjustments, the combined economic output of these three districts now accounts for roughly half of the city’s total. However, their growth suddenly stalled at the end of last year—partly due to the sudden outbreak of the pandemic, which hit the “pause button,” and partly due to their gradually waning development potential. Regardless, despite the city being forced to hit the “pause button” for over 40 days due to the pandemic at the end of last year, Xi’an managed to narrowly qualify as a “trillion-yuan city.” At that time, Dongguan’s GDP reached 1.085535 trillion yuan, making it the 24th city to achieve a trillion-yuan GDP, surpassing Xi’an. According to Dongguan’s 2022 government report, the number of industrial enterprises above designated size in Dongguan exceeded 11,000 in 2021, doubling from the previous year; industrial added value from enterprises above designated size grew by approximately 9.5%, and investment in major projects surpassed the 100-billion-yuan mark.
Rejecting the Dominance of a Single City: The "Twin Stars" Are Not a Dream
The “twin-star” phenomenon is one we are all quite familiar with. When two cities account for a quarter of their province’s total economic output and possess comparable core comprehensive strength, it demonstrates their vital importance to the provincial economy.
For example, Guangdong boasts Guangzhou and Shenzhen; Zhejiang has Hangzhou and Ningbo; Fujian’s Fuzhou and Xiamen each have their own strengths; and Shandong’s Jinan and Qingdao are in a close race… Why do coastal provinces tend to have “pairs of twin stars,” while inland provinces often rely on a single dominant city? It’s not hard to notice that cities like Wuhan, Chengdu, Changsha, Zhengzhou, and Hefei are emerging in major rankings, gradually becoming the “newcomers” on the lists. However, these cities almost always represent their entire provinces, while others appear on the lists only as “passers-by”—sometimes present, sometimes absent, and often barely visible. In fact, it’s often difficult to immediately identify which city is the second-strongest in a given province. Coastal provinces, however, are different. They often boast multiple “twin-star” cities, and now “triple-star” cities have emerged—Fuzhou, Quanzhou, and Xiamen form a three-way balance of power. In the south, in particular, it is easy to name the second-largest city and the third-largest powerhouse. Some cities are on par with their provincial capitals in strength, with Shenzhen serving as the most typical “bridgehead.” What benefits does the existence of “twin-star” cities bring to regional economic development? On one hand, they foster competition among cities, encouraging them to benchmark against each other in attracting talent, industries, and capital, thereby creating a better market environment and achieving mutual benefit. On the other hand, over time, they form “urban clusters” within the province, driving the rapid flow of resources and breaking down administrative barriers, which will have a positive impact on the entire region. Therefore, a single flower does not make a spring; a hundred flowers blooming fill the garden with spring. It can be said that the more “twin-star” cities there are, the more balanced the development will be.
Conclusion
The uneven distribution of the 24 “trillion-yuan club” cities also indicates, to some extent, that various resources—such as industries, technologies, and talent—have flowed toward specific regions. Therefore, in the future, it will be necessary to further coordinate regional development, optimize central cities such as cities with independent planning status and key hub cities, and leverage greater “spillover” effects.
