This time, with the local two sessions held one after another, the National People's Congress is getting closer and closer.

At this critical moment of setting the tone for future development, governments around the world are actively planning and deploying.

Scientific planning cannot be separated from the support of practical research.

2025 opening year, the country's premier went to Shandong, began the first research this year.

From the point of view of the itinerary, it is mainly divided into four stops, corresponding to the consumer goods trade-in, new energy transformation, urban renewal and the construction of two projects.

Why focus on these four directions? What is the deep meaning behind? What is the inspiration for this year's economic work, as well as local investment?

01 The research three points

First of all, the underlying logic, the key to the "two new" "two heavy".

As early as the end of December last year, Beijing high-level economic work conference deployment of key tasks, will "vigorously boost consumption, improve the efficiency of investment, all-round expansion of domestic demand" in the first place.

Which mentioned the need to further promote and implement the "two new" policies.

The "two new" (large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in) and "two important" (the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas) are important tools for expanding domestic demand on all fronts in 2025. This is also an important starting point for this Shandong research.

Look at the specific itinerary again.

First, consumption. Premier personally visited the flagship store of Jingdong electrical appliances located in Quancheng Road, Jinan City, and with the customer in-depth exchanges, to understand the actual situation. This action clearly sends a message that consumer goods trade-in will be further strengthened in 2025.

The second is new energy. Visiting a car network interactive charging and switching demonstration station, observed the charging and switching equipment and operation demonstration. This heralds more development opportunities for new energy new technologies and new modes to further cultivate and strengthen the development of new kinetic energy.

Third, the project. Visiting the Yellow River Sports Center in the starting area, the Dasi River Basin Comprehensive Management Project site. This heralds the planning of a number of major projects, find the combination of expanding investment and promoting consumption, and give full play to the comprehensive benefits of the project.

From the itinerary, two key points can be distilled: major infrastructure construction; trade-in to release consumption potential.

This latter point, in particular, is the keyword of the research.

Industry insiders predict that in 2025, domestic and foreign demand may usher in the "relay". As the pull of external demand on GDP gradually cooled, domestic demand is expected to accelerate the recovery, it is expected that the year-on-year GDP growth rate may reach 5.0%.

In the field of investment, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, manufacturing investment is also expected to continue to expand;

In terms of consumption, with the "old for new" and other policy efforts to strengthen and expand the scope, coupled with the improvement of the residents' risk appetite, consumption is expected to be further restored.

02 Preferred Shandong What are the considerations

Economic provinces to pick the beam. According to the economic report card released by Shandong, GDP reached 9.86 trillion yuan in 2024, just one step away from 10 trillion.

From the perspective of the "two new" and "two heavy", the preferred research action in Shandong is mainly based on the following considerations.

On the one hand, Shandong has a demographic advantage, the household population and resident population "double over 100 million". This means that Shandong has a huge volume of market size and consumption potential, providing a broad market space for all kinds of consumer goods.

On the other hand, Shandong has a strong executive power in the implementation of policies.

It is understood that in 2024, Shandong was the first in the country to issue and implement the implementation of the relevant implementation plan to promote the consumer goods trade-in, set up a special task force, the establishment of 17 departments of the consumer goods trade-in work coordination mechanism.

As of Dec. 18, the province had submitted 446,000 applications for automobile scrapping and renewal, more than one-sixth of the nation's total, and as a better region, Shandong will also take the lead in the allocation of funds for the 2025 consumer goods trade-in.

In addition, two key messages can be deciphered from the Prime Minister's car network interactive charging and switching demonstration station research. The first is the energy transition and major projects, and the second is the construction of the grid-interactive charging and switching network, which is closely related to smart grid-connected new energy vehicles.

One is Shandong's obvious advantage, the other is a hidden advantage.

As a major energy province, Shandong as early as August 2022, was approved to build a green, low-carbon, high-quality development of the pioneer area, the country put forward a "dual-carbon" strategy, the country's first to the theme of green, low-carbon, high-quality development of the strategic layout.

According to the State Council's "Opinions on Supporting Shandong to Deepen the Conversion of Old and New Dynamics to Promote Green, Low-Carbon and High-Quality Development", a very important task for Shandong to build an advanced zone for green and low-carbon development is to explore the optimization of the energy structure, scenarios of application and other aspects of the national industry to accumulate experience in the development of the country.

And in the intelligent network of new energy vehicles closely related to the vehicle network interaction charging and switching network construction, is the future direction of Shandong's efforts.

Taking Jinan, the city where this research was conducted, for example, the value-added of the city's automobile manufacturing industry increased by 36.8% year-on-year from January to November 2024, and the output of new energy vehicles is close to 500,000 units. In addition, in the field of heavy trucks, buses and other commercial vehicles, the power exchange technology route is also beginning to occupy market share.

For the traditional commercial vehicle province of Shandong, the combination of energy transformation and charging and switching network construction may bring new industrial opportunities.

03 National Key Local Investment Inspiration

What the country values, it will support. People, money and materials, will also be tilted in these directions.

For the local government, follow the pace of the country, accurate investment, is the key to promote more local economic development. So what inspiration can be gained from this Prime Minister's research action?

First is to expand domestic demand.

There are two main grips: consumption, investment.

In terms of investment, the government should play a good role in investment funds, and join hands with social capital to more set up industrial development funds.

This mode of cooperation can not only increase the scale and duration of the investment of social capital, to provide a steady stream of financial support for the development of industry, so that the social capital into a long-term development of industry, "patient capital".

Some time ago the release of the State Office of the No. 1 article, the fund investment put forward new requirements. Simply put, the initial intention should be focused on making the key industries bigger and stronger, rather than simply attracting investment.

Therefore, it is necessary to first solve the problem of unclear boundaries between the government and the market.

The government should act as a guide rather than a dominant player, maintain the independence of the fund institutions and give encouragement and supportive attitude, rather than replace them to dominate the industrial science and technology innovation.

The second is to build major projects.

Local governments should focus on the goal of making up for industrial shortcomings and enhancing development momentum, digging deeper to find more industrial growth points, accurately finding the combination of expanding investment and promoting consumption, and maximizing the benefits of projects.

Project attraction, ultimately to fall on the industrial development. So what industrial areas should be chosen? The National Bureau of Statistics released 2024 economic data, can provide us with reference.

The data show that the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry grew faster, with the former growing by 7.7 percent and the latter by 8.9 percent.

More specifically, the output of new-energy vehicles, integrated circuits, and industrial robotic products, grew by 38.7 percent, 22.2 percent, and 14.2 percent, respectively.

These segments can be used as industrial directions for the government to focus on. In practice, it is also important to pay attention to the market and financial feasibility and other aspects of the research first, according to the local conditions of the construction and recruitment of projects.

Finally, industrial upgrading, green and low-carbon development.

Since the country put forward the "dual-carbon" strategy, green low-carbon has become an important direction of industrial development.

In the recent local two sessions, many governments will be this as an important work to promote, such as Chongqing, Henan, Jilin, Sichuan and Guangxi and other regions.

In Henan, for example, they have clearly set out strict targets for controlling total coal consumption, and plan to carry out a comprehensive greening of four key industries, namely iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals and building materials, and build 100 green factories and 10 super energy-efficient factories.

Finally, local governments should follow the pace of the country in the investment promotion process, focusing on the expansion of domestic demand, the construction of major projects, as well as industrial upgrading and green low-carbon development and other key points.

Through precise investment, we can inject vitality into the sustainable development of local economy.